Twice a year, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) publishes its macroeconomic forecasts for 22 countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE).
Economic strategies are being questioned in several countries, both in Emerging Europe and elsewhere. Politicians have proposed more nationalist economic approaches, and in some cases are acting on them, in both Hungary and Poland as well as the US and the UK. In the former two emerging Europe countries, governments have consciously adopted policies of promoting nationally owned businesses, ostensibly out of concern that excessive foreign ownership hurts the country’s welfare. Continue reading Is the Level of Foreign Ownership a Problem in Emerging Europe?
A host of flash estimate GDP data released by Eurostat and national statistics offices on August 16th showed that the economies of EU-CEE had another highly impressive quarter of growth in April-June. In seasonally-adjusted terms, growth strengthened in relation to Q1 from already elevated levels in the Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland and Bulgaria. In Romania and Slovakia momentum was unchanged relative to the previous three months, while in Lithuania and Hungary it slowed slightly. Data for the other EU-CEE economies—Slovenia, Estonia and Croatia—are not yet available. Continue reading EU-CEE Is Still Growing at a Healthy Rate
According to a recent (May 2017) public opinion poll, 72 per cent of Czech people favour keeping their national currency whereas only 21 per cent would welcome a switchover to the Euro. Continue reading Czech Own Currency Insures Against Euro Losses
Azerbaijan is a small but energy-rich country in a strategically sensitive location. Its leaders have had many choices about pathways to the future and through consistent decisions over two decades, have created a repressive oligarchic regime that is ruled by one family. How did Azerbaijan, which started on the path to political pluralism in 1992, become a corrupt state that abuses human rights and the media? Continue reading Azerbaijan: The Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Nothing
As Adam Smith once said, the sufficient conditions for the economic prosperity of a country are “peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice”. Continue reading Adam Smith’s Warning for Poland
Moldova and Romania have long toyed with the idea of (re)unification. The two countries, which were a single entity until Russia annexed present-day Moldova in 1812 (and then again in 1940), have much in common in the way of language, culture, and history. Both countries are predominantly Romanian speaking, have populations that are closely-related ethnically, and are successors to the premodern Romanian states. Continue reading Good Match But Unlikely Marriage
The inflow of FDI had long been considered the main driver of economic growth in the countries of Central and South-eastern Europe. During the transition to a market economy, FDI provided much-needed capital and knowledge, as well as access to technology and markets. Continue reading Ex-Transition Economies’ FDI Recovery
There is not, and there has never been, a more important mission for the generation, which spans communism and a free Poland, than a permanent anchoring in Western structures. Joining NATO and the European Union seemed to be a happy outcome of that mission. Unfortunately, it is still far too early to rejoice. Continue reading Poland Needs to Cling to the Eurozone
The five scenarios Jean Claude Juncker recently presented, concerning the future of the EU, are still provoking lively conversation in all corners of the European continent. Seen from Bucharest, the future, as described by the Commission’s White Paper, looks both simple and complicated. Continue reading Juncker’s “More, Together” Offers Romania a Better Future
Bulgaria is still the poorest EU member state, although its GDP is now around 50 per cent of the Bloc’s average, while it was only 25 per cent back in 2000. The country has a rather dynamic and often turbulent political life, but its democracy is more pluralistic and less polarised than Hungary and Poland. In a rather competitive environment, one party – the centre-right GERB — and its leader Boyko Borissov have dominated the political scene over the last ten years. They emerged as the biggest party faction in the National Assembly after the latest parliamentary elections in March. On May 4, the third Borissov government was sworn in. Continue reading Bulgaria Needs a Reform-Oriented Government to Take Full Advantage of its EU Membership
In some countries, when their leaders have egregiously over-stepped their authority to shield themselves from accountability, citizens have taken to the streets with some success.