Fitch And the World Bank: Economic Growth To Remain Solid Within CEE In 2016

“External factors should be generally supportive, with stronger growth momentum within the EU, low interest rates and quantitative easing by the ECB, subdued commodity prices and the stabilisation in Russia,” Paul Gamble, Senior Director at Sovereign Group, Fitch Ratings, tells 

“Other EU members are the main trade and investment partner for CEE, so an improvement in growth in the EU — our forecast for Eurozone growth is 1.7 per cent in 2016, up from 1.5 per cent in 2015 — would boost CEE economies. Fiscal easing in some counties will also support growth. Risks have probably increased, but we continue to expect solid performance,” Mr Gamble adds.

“The EU is gradually emerging from a protracted economic downturn that led to an increase in poverty in many countries. Continued easing of financial conditions, improved confidence, low commodity prices and a reduced drag from fiscal consolidation will continue to support growth in 2015 and 2016,” says Doerte Doemeland, World Bank Lead Economist and co-author of the World Bank’s the Stronger Recovery and Declining Poverty in EU, but Hurdles to Faster, Sustained Growth are High report. “However, a prolonged period of low investment growth, a slowdown in emerging-market growth, higher financial volatility and regional tensions could undermine the outlook”.

The World Bank expects growth in the EU to reach 2.0 per cent in 2015 and 2.1 per cent in 2016. It projects that growth will strengthen from 1.8 per cent (y-o-y) in the first half of 2015, with Central Europe experiencing the highest growth, driven by the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania. Poland is projected to reach 3.5 per cent in 2015 and remain above this level over the medium term, as improved labor market conditions raise real disposable household incomes and consumption.

Fitch forecasts growth of 3.0 per cent in Latvia and Slovakia and above 3.5 per cent in Macedonia, Poland and Romania.

The authors of Fitch’s 2016 Outlook: Emerging Europe Sovereigns identify the turn of the EU funding cycle as one of the main drag on growth, particularly in Czech Republic and Hungary — 2015 was the last year countries could benefit from disbursements for capital projects under the 2007-2013 investment cycle. “The gradual ramp-up in funding under the 2014-2020 cycle means it will take time for new momentum to develop. The other element that will affect performance in some of the larger sovereigns in the region are policy and political uncertainty,” they write in the report.

“Early measures under the new [Law and Justice] (PiS) government in Poland, including relaxation of fiscal policy, interference with the constitutional court and new taxes on the retail and banking sectors, have sent negative signals about the outlook for public finances, governance and potentially the investment climate. Solid domestic demand should support economic performance, but risks to the fiscal position are rising,” says Fitch’s Outlook.

Analysts expect economic policy in Romania to remain largely on hold over the course of 2016. The country loosened its fiscal policy in 2015 in the context of its new fiscal code and heads to polls in late 2016 with a technocratic government following the resignation of the scandal-tinged Ponta administration in November.

Fitch’s experts say Croatia might face a new parliamentary election in 2016 owing to the ongoing failure to agree on a coalition after the November election. In mid-December 2015, new party Most (“Bridge” in Croatian) decided that they would continue negotiations to form a government with HDZ-led Patriotic Coalition (HDZ stands for the Croatian Democratic Union), but added that SDP (or the Social Democratic Party) could still possibly join them. Thus, the situation is not clear yet.
According to the Outlook, Macedonia’s election scheduled for April 2016 could lead to a reduction in risk following years of political polarisation that has contributed to persistent fiscal slippage, but there are significant downside risks. General elections in Slovakia and Lithuania are not expected to lead to a change in policy direction owing to a broad consensus among the leading political parties.

Russia’s poor economic performance has already affected the region. Now, Fitch’s analysts expect the Big Bear’s economy to stabilise in 2016 and mark 0.5 per cent growth after a contraction of 4.0 per cent in 2015. That growth is supposed to be driven by a cautious recovery in investment and a stabilisation in private consumption.

The conflict in Eastern Ukraine is not supposed to deteriorate and the risk of a significant tightening of sanctions on Russia will diminish. After a double-digit decline in 2015, Ukraine’s economy will modestly pick up.

For Europe, including the CEE region, the migrant crisis may be a source of political tension and pressure on public finances, though this is expected to be manageable for most countries in Central and Eastern Europe as migrants will continue heading to Western Europe.


Automotive and Transport Companies Dominate the CEE Region

Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory

Romanian Car Maker Dacia Sees Sales Boom

Sables d Olonne France - May 07 2017 : Dacia Tour 2017 is a commercial operation organized by the car builder in order to present its cars throughout France - Close-up on cars

Prospering Czechia Still Needs a Bigger Workforce

prague emerging europe

Jadranka Joksimović: Serbia Takes Its Candidacy of the EU Seriously


What Went Wrong in Ukraine – And When?

EU Membership and Transition into Market Economies Have Helped CEE Achieve Social Progress

Belarus Refinery Boss Upbeat Despite Challenges

oil refinery

Albania’s Construction Sector Supports the Country’s Growth

SARANDA, ALBANIA - MAY 18: View of the city Saranda, most important tourist attraction of the Albanian Riviera on May 18, 2017 in Saranda, Albania.

IMF Urges Croatia to Speed Up Reform


Investment in Croatia’s Regions Key to Further Development

CAKOVEC, CROATIA - JULY 02: Parish Church of Saint Nicholas in Cakovec, Croatia, on July 02, 2016.

Effective Policies Have Strengthened the Georgian Economy

TBILISI GEORGIA Jul. 18 2017: Bridge of Peace is a bow-shaped pedestrian bridge a steel and glass construction over the Kura River in downtown Tbilisi capital of Georgia

Montenegro Accelerates Legal Reform

montenegro law reform

Ex-Banker to Become Poland’s Next Prime Minister

CEE Boosted by Positive Tourism Trends Across the Region

cruise ship in Kotor Bay Montenegro. Aerial view panorama. Kotor bay Montenegro.

Despite Public Anxieties, Migration is Playing a Key Role in ECA Growth

Bratislava city aerial panoramic view. Bratislava is the capital of Slovakia.

European Commission Withholds 600 Million Euros from Ukraine

kyiv, kiev, ukraine

Polish Shoppers in Hunt for Eggs

eggs in rack

CEE Tech Growth Continues: Poland and the Czech Republic Lead the Way


Economy Minister: Internationalisation Is the Key To the Slovenian Economy

Bad Payers Still Causing Problems for Romanian Firms

Close up Romanian currency note, LEI or LEU, Romania

Poles Still Keen on German Jobs

Brandenburg Gate in Berlin in Germany. The Brandenburg Gate is a triumphal arch a city gate in the center of Berlin. It is one of the most known sites in Berlin.

Czech Land Prices Continue to Increase

farm land

Albania’s Economy Booms Despite Political Infighting

Panorama view to the city Tirana Albania

Putin Urges Belarus to End Oil Transit Through Lithuania

Athens Greece - May 27 2016: Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers

Hungary’s Solar Dreamer

hand sun and blue sky with copyspace showing freedom or solar power concept

All for One, and One for All


‘Traditional Values’: A Potent Weapon Against LGBT Rights

gay rights putin

NATO Opens New Moldova Office

NATO Moldova

CEE Nation Brands Still Behind Western Counterparts

TALLINN ESTONIA- JUNE 17: View of the modern high rise buildings on border with an old part of the city on June 17 2012 in Tallinn Estonia

Slovenia Sets Green Vehicle Deadline of 2030


Is Prague the New Face of Overtourism?

prague tourists

IMF Increases Growth Forecast With Emerging Europe Prominent

Dambovita river and center of Bucharest at sunset time Romania.

CEE: Innovate or Get Eaten


Lviv Is the Pearl and the Soul of Ukraine

Poland to Switch from Emerging to Developed Market by September 2018

warsaw stock exchange

Euroscepticism in Serbia: An Image Problem?

Western Ukraine Could Be an Entry Point into the Country

Albania’s Economy Not Benefiting From Largest Oil Reserves in Region

Growth Continues for State-Owned Azerbaijan Airlines

Azerbaijan Baku - September 16 2015: View of the Heydar Aliyev International Airport sign in Baku Azerbaijan. The airport is the home of Azerbaijan Airlines the national flag carrier.

Estonia Leading CEE Country in WEF Competitiveness Index

pharmaceutical factory woman worker operating production line at pharmacy industry manufacture factory

Trans Adriatic Pipeline Will Fuel Albanian Growth

Xanthi. Greece - July 30 2017: aerial view of construction of gas pipeline Trans Adriatic Pipeline - TAP in north Greece. The pipeline starts from the Caspian sea and reaches the coast of southern Italy

World Bank: Western Balkans Need to Speed Up Growth For Faster Convergence

world bank

Assaults on the Judiciary: How CEE Governments Are Trying to Restrict Judicial Independence, and Why It’s Not Working… For Now

poland romania justice system

Do Your Homework First and Starting Business in Poland is Easier

Hungary Today: Potential and Challenge

Chain bridge on Danube river in Budapest city. Hungary. Urban landscape panorama with old buildings and domes of opera

Measure, Strengthen, and Grow

dacia brand

Poland Fails to Spend Billions of Euros in EU Funds

euro banknotes

The Polish Government’s Mid-Term Report: Must Do Better

Front of finance ministry in Warsaw Poland with a fountain framing the entrance. Could be used for images about Euro currency problems

Air Passenger Volumes Reach Record High in the Baltics


Warsaw Back on Top in Polish Banking

WARSAW, POLAND - MAY 07, 2016: Building Palace of Culture and Science among the modern buildings of the city

Lithuania Set to Streamline Competition Legislation

Industrial dock with cranes on the quay

Romania’s Budget Deficit ‘Should Start Alarm Bells Ringing’

BUCHAREST ROMANIA - June 29 2017: Romanian Prime Minister Mihai Tudose during a swearing-in ceremony at Cotroceni palace in Bucharest capital of Romania June 29 2017.

EU Commissioner Launches Veiled Attack on Poland and Hungary

eu commission

Romania Warned Again by European Council Over Budget Deficit

romania finance ministry

Poland Is Set To Become a Large Economic Zone

Aerial view over the building materials processing factory. View from above.

After Economic Shocks Armenia Plans for Macroeconomic Stability

yerevan armenia minister of finance

Continental Launch Largest Ever Lithuanian Greenfield Investment

kaunas lithuania

Chinese Electric Car Maker Seeks Emerging Europe Base

zhi dou d2

Belarus Steps Up Liberalisation of Business


Nadiya Savchenko: I Dream of a Great Ukraine

Panorama of the top part of the Andrew's Descent from Castle Hill in springtime in Kiev Ukraine.

Lviv Region in Double Logistics Boost

goods train logistics

Georgian PM Reshapes and Reshuffles Cabinet

Giorgi Kvirikashvili

Sarajevo Stock Exchange Connected to SEE Link

sarajevo stock exchange

e-Estonia: Believe the Hype

Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Boss Survives, For Now

Artem Sytnyk

Mayor: Armenia And Its Capital Yerevan Offer Safe Investment And Tourism To a Growing World

Bulgaria’s Bitcoin Mystery

bitcoin bulgaria

Warsaw Rising: The Polish Capital’s Skyline Gets Even Taller


Estonia Proposes Bill of Rights and Responsibilities for Robots

Robotic hand accessing on laptop the virtual world of information. Concept of artificial intelligence and replacement of humans by machines.

Investigations Into the Corrupt Ukrainian Fuel and Energy Sectors

Ukrainian money hryvnia. The national currency. Corruption in Ukraine

Belarus’ Economy Is Slowly Recovering From Past Declines

OECD: Tightening Labour Markets Sustain Growth in Emerging Europe

workers, employment

Double Ratings Agency Boost for Bulgaria

TV Still a Star for CME

Ukraine’s Q2 Growth Climbs

kyiv ukraine emerging europe

Go East

Chris Lowney — What Jesuit Spirituality Can Teach Us About Global Leadership

EU May Offer Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine Customs Union and Schengen Access


Lithuania Gives Innovation a StartUp

MILAN ITALY - MAY 2: People visit Lithuania pavilion at Expo universal exposition on the theme of food on MAY 2 2015 in Milan.

World Bank: Brexit Hides Greater Challenges to the European Union and the CEE Region

Czechs Hold Emerging Europe’s Most Powerful Passport

One in Five Poles Unaware of Source of Funds for 500 Plus Programme

ICT Growth Continues to Boost Bosnian Economy

ict, it

Sunday Trading in Poland Under Renewed Threat

Moldova Launches New e-Procurement System In Search For Positive Change

Photo team work process, holding contract hand, signs documents. Account managers young crew works with startup project.New idea presentation, analyze marketing reports.Blurred, film effect, horizontal.

Macedonia — Stepping Out Of the Shadow Of the Balkans

Budapest’s Property Boom Goes Nationwide


Kaczyński Defends PiS Record

Czech Election Result Could Delay Euro Adoption Until 2025

czech banknotes nominal value two and five thousand crowns on white background. 300 000 Kc is approximately 12 450 US dollars (USD) or 11 100 Euro (EUR)

Slovenia: Emerging Europe’s Hidden Giant

ljubljana slovenia

Slovakia: Growth Continues But Problems Remain

GE Inaugurates Its New Bucharest Software Centre

Asian Outsource Developer Team Sitting At Desk Working Laptop Computer Mobile Application Software Real Office

HSBC Reports CEE Growth Surge in Q3

romania national bank

Larisa Manastirli: Where is Bulgaria After Ten Years in the EU?

The Azerbaijani Laundromat: Why It Matters

azerbaijani money laundering

Economic Confidence Rises Across Eurozone

Poland’s Flying Circus

airport poland

Lithuania Wants to Bring Home its Skilled Workers

VILNIUS - FEBRUARY 25: Many people choose books at the indoor book

Bulgaria: Real Estate’s New Frontier?

Belarus Introduces New Business-Friendly Auditing Procedures

MINSK, BELARUS - AUGUST 15, 2016: Aerial view of the southwestern part of the Minsk with Palace of Sport and old and new other buildings. Minsk is the capital and largest city of Belarus.

Mobilising Private Sector Investment in Belarus, Moldova & Ukraine


Poland’s Q2 2017 Growth Is Stronger Than Expected

WARSAW, POLAND - MAY 07, 2016: Building Palace of Culture and Science among the modern buildings of the city

Košice Business Matchmaking Event Brings in Hungarians

kosice, slovakia

A Risky Evaluation of Croatia’s Economy?

ZAGREB, CROATIA - JULY 17, 2017: Square Ban Josip Jelacic with tourists and trams on a summer day in Zagreb. City of Zagreb is the capital of Croatia.

Digital Business Space Gives All Businesses an Office in Sarajevo

Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina - August 24 2015. View from Vraca Memorial Park with building of Avaz Twist Tower

UK Economic Growth Slows as Brexit Uncertainty Bites

flags of UK and EU combined over icons of London - Brexit concept

Romanian Cabinet Reshuffled as New Splits Emerge in Ruling Party

BUCHAREST ROMANIA - MAY 25 2014: The Victoria Palace. Victoria Square.

Chickens Blamed for Romanian Budget Deficit

Two white chickens or hens inside a chicken coop or hen house seen through chicken wire.

Visegrád Divided


Ukraine’s Finance Ministry Wants Urgent Tax Reform

Industrial Production Prices in New Increase


Investors Eye Opportunities in Emerging European Infrastructure


CEE Is Key to China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Shanghai skyline Panoramic view of shanghai skyline and huangpu river Shanghai China

Poland Set for New Expressways, But Problems on the Roads Remain

poland roads

Ukraine to Restart Privatisation to Realise Profits

Pricatisation electricity ukraine

High Real Estate Prices at Home Force Czech Investors Abroad

Construction of the Petrin lookout tower in Prague Czech Republic

Romanian Inflation Hits Four-Year High

supermarket, prices, inflation

Lech Wałęsa: Hard Options Can Force Nations to Get Down to Work

Slowly, Tech Brand Belarus Emerges

belarus tech

Meghri Becomes Armenia’s Third FEZ

armenia emerging europe

Growing Rzeszów

Rynek Glowny in Rzeszow. Rzeszow Podkarpackie Poland.

IMF: Institutions Key to Sustainable Growth


Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey Launch New ‘Silk Rail’ Link

Poland & Ukraine Should Join Outsourcing Forces


Romanian Opposition Unites Against ‘Crime Syndicate’ Government

Changes Are Making Ukrainian Banking More Aligned with International Standards

CEE Lags in Business Connectivity

ANIS romanian ICT

China Agrees to Build High-Tech Business Park in Serbia

BELGRADE SERBIA - SEPTEMBER 29 2016: View on the city center and the junction of Rivers Sava and Danube in Belgrade Serbia.

Kosovo: A Population of Talented Young Entrepreneurs Waits at Europe’s Door

Skiing in Emerging Europe

gudauri ski georgia

Kraków: Officially Emerging Europe’s Most Elegant City

Krakow. Image of Krakow Market square, Poland during sunrise.

Ukraine’s Economic Recovery: Good, But Slow

ukraine money

Budget Chaos Hits Romanian Leu

Different Romanian Lei Banknotes on the table

Bulgaria and Romania Get EBRD SME Boost

Startup Diversity Teamwork Brainstorming Meeting Concept

Valga and Valka – Where Estonia and Latvia Work Together

Valga valka emerging europe

GSA Names Ukraine as UK’s Offshoring Destination of the Year

map of ukraine emerging europe

Poland Stays Cool on Euro Adoption

Euro cash and Zloty on one photo.

CEE Playing Catch Up on R&D Spending

science, r&d

Georgia Leads Emerging Europe in Ease of Doing Business Report

Lithuanian Grocery Giant Maxima Set For Polish Expansion


Wizz Air in Huge Polish & Ukrainian Expansion

wizz air a320

Visegrad Group Looks East

Polish Labour Market Deficits Are Impacting All

Construction site with crane and building. Construction site in western europe - in Poland.

CEE Emigrants Could Boost Their Countries’ Economies

Londoners walking through Millennium Bridge with St.Paul's Cathedral at the background after sunset - London, UK

Toyota Announces 400 Million Zloty Polish Investment


Emerging Europe Back on Track to Convergence


EconMin: Bulgaria — Number One Outsourcing Destination And an Island of Stability in Europe

Women, to Tractors!

Tug of war contest between boys and girls. Two groups of children of different sex pulling opposite ends of rope. Concept of gender equality among kids, team sports. Vector illustration for banner

Retail Rents Rise Across Emerging Europe

Na Prikope Prague

EU: Consumption Still Driving Growth

Romania Cuts Income Tax, Introduces Solidarity Tax

CLUJ NAPOKA ROMANIA - OCT 2 2016: People on the central street of Cluj Napoka - the unofficial capital of Transylvania.

Tech Giant Expands Romanian Operations

Baltic Bank Merger May Tempt Polish Heavyweight

DNB Bank Vilnius

Hungary Seen as Riskiest Country in CEE


EBRD Transition Report Highlights Financial Sector Resilience


Georgia’s Growth Continues

Batumi, Adjara, Georgia - May 27, 2016: Batumi, Adjara, Georgia. Gogebashvili Street Road And Marine Station Or Maritime Station Building Batumi On Background

Romanian Cyber Security Firm Valued at 600 million US dollars in Private Equity Swoop

cyber security

Non-Financial Reporting No Longer a Secondary Consideration in CEE

21st century Manufacturing Arrives at Great Stone

Great stone

Emerging Europe to Record Positive Growth Across the Board in 2018

coins growth

Polish Government in Climbdown on Social Contribution Hike

Serbia, Belarus and Ukraine Ranked Lowly by Wharton Business School

Kyiv Ukraine - April 172017: The postal square in Kiev on Podol the Dnipro river. view of the square from the river panorama

Baltic States to Launch Combined Capital Market

capital markets

Young Georgians Make Their Mark at Emerging Europe-EBRD Event

maximilien lambertson at emergeing ebrd outlook on georgia

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Focussing on Stability and Business Climate

Sarajevo Bosnia and Herzegovina - August 23 2015. View of Miljacka River in Sarajevo city

Estonia Leads Baltics in Cutting Sugar in Food and Drink

Derek Chollet: There Is a Resurgence of Supporters of the Transatlantic Relationship

white house

The End of Poland’s Shale Gas Eldorado

Ukraine Is Offering Europe Unique Combat and Technological Experience

Latvian Deputy Prime Minister Highlights Riga’s Potential


Emerging Europe Makes Some Progress on Closing Gender Gap

world economic forum gender gap report

More EU Help for Belarus SMEs

GRODNO BELARUS - DECEMBER 13 2013: Seamstress in textile factory sewing with a industrial sewing machine .

Latvia Urged Not to Increase Expenditure As Economy Grows

Riga, Latvia - August, 2010: Panorama view from Riga cathedral on old town of Riga, Latvia

China and Central Europe: Don’t Believe the Hype


Growth Increase Offers Glimmer of Hope for Moldova


Michael: The Last King of Romania

Ukraine to Make New Privatisation Push

Emerging Europe Key to China’s Belt & Road Plans

freight, ship, trade

Erste Group: Public Debt Falling Across CEE

erste group

Still Potential for Growth in CEE as Economies Stabilise

More Brexit Fears As the UK Proves To Be A Needed Member

City of London view from Waterloo Bridge. This view includes: St. Paul`s Cathedral The Gherkin Tower 42 and Blackfriars Bridge.

Global Players Dash for Tempting CEE

dollar pound euro coin on euro background.

World Bank’s Doing Business Report 2016 Resume For Emerging Europe

EY: Belarus’ IT Scene Is Thriving

High tech park minsk

IMF Wants Banking Sector Reform in Western Balkans

croatia national bank

Škoda too Strong for VW Group

MLADA BOLESLAV CZECH REPUBLIC - MAY 30: Skoda Octavia on conveyor line during Doors Open Day at Skoda Auto a.s. factory. Skoda auto celebrated 120 years since its founding on May 30 2015 in Mlada Boleslav.

CEE Must Improve Infrastructure and Logistics

Aerial view of Gliwice Sosnica motorway junction. There are international traffic in four directions

Lithuania Handed Top Marks for Business Services

Beautiful panorama of Vilnius Old Town taken from Gediminas hill; Lithuania

Czech Republic Raises Interest Rates

czech koruna

Business Standards Are High in SEE But Vary Widely

Aerial view of The Cathedral of the Assumption in Varna

Regional News Outlets: The Real Target of Poland’s New Media Law?

poland media

Beyond Borders: Immigration Within the EU

refugees immigrants

Estcoin: Estonia’s Own Digital Currency?

1 euro coin money (EUR) currency of European Union Estonia over blue background

Serbia Drafts New Competition Law

serbia belgrade flag

Croatian Salaries Are Growing in Line With Other CEE Countries

Dubrovnik Croatia emerging europe

Baltics Seek Lockstep With High Tech States

Euro money: Macro view of euro coin and bill. Suitable for financial, monetary, euro or European Union concepts and ideas

Emerging Europe Looking Good in Best-Performing Cities Index

Budapest, Hungary. Aerial view of the old city Budapest, Hungary with river and Parliament Building with cloudy blue sky

PE and VC Investment In CEE Is At an Eight-Year High

venture capital

Poland’s Business Constitution Must Be Finalised

Front of finance ministry in Warsaw Poland with a fountain framing the entrance. Could be used for images about Euro currency problems

Romanian Economy Grows Fast in 2017

Brasov cityscape panoramic and aerial view over medieval architecture of Brasov town, in Transylvania Romania

SEE Link — Sharing SEE Europe’s Hopes for a Brighter Investment Future

Doing Business Across Eurasia Could Be Easier

Eurasia emerging europe schneider group

Does the Sceptre of Separatism Haunt Emerging Europe?

Szekely Land Flag

Why Was Zapad-2017 So Important?

russian tank belarus zapad

The Reality in Romania Exposes False Perceptions Of The Country

Mixed Results for Emerging Europe in Legatum Prosperity Index


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *