Belarus’ Economy Is Slowly Recovering From Past Declines

emerging europe belarus outlook ebrd

Read the Outlook on Belarus special report

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The Belarusian economy is expected to grow by 0.7 per cent in 2017, says the outlook from FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Belarus — November 2016. That growth will help GDP to slightly exceed the 2014 per capita figure of $7,048, by 2020.
The Belarusian economy contracted sharply in 2015, because of reduced remittances’ inflows, as well as a spill over effect from Russia’s economic downturn. Although in all likelihood it bottomed out in 2015, the latest economic indicators confirm that economic activity remains weak.

“The private sector is persistently weak since the government’s progress, in introducing more market-friendly reforms, remains slow. Activity in the third quarter did not look promising for Belarus’ economy: in September, industrial production contracted for the fourth consecutive time and retail sales declined at the steepest rate since the beginning of 2015. This follows the decrease in GDP growth that was seen in Q2; suggesting the economy remains in the doldrums,” says Marlène Rump, an economist at FocusEconomics.
According to FocusEconomics, Q2’s deceleration was softer than that of Q1, thanks to a milder drop in fixed investment, although private consumption decreased at a sharper rate, probably on the back of stagnant household incomes.

“Notwithstanding this, the IMF lauded the Belarusian government for its efforts to stabilise the economy, in talks in early October. The fund intends to visit the country later this year, which increases the prospects of a loan agreement being reached soon.

In other news, Gazprom and the government in Minsk agreed on a deal where Belarus will settle an old debt to Russia and receive subsidised Russian gas in turn,” Ms Rump adds.
Inflation moderated from 11.8 per cent in August to 11.1 per cent in September, as service price inflation eased. FocusEconomics expects inflation to average out at 12.4 per cent in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, inflation should recede to 11.3 per cent.

“After hitting rock bottom in Q2 2015, the contraction in economic activity has been diminishing in recent months, though economic activity still contracted at an annual rate of 2.7 per cent in the January to July period. Fitch Ratings confirmed Belarus’ credit rating at B- with a stable outlook in August; stating that the country’s large external financing needs and low international reserves represent important external vulnerabilities, whereas public finances are healthy,” Ms Rump says.

Between 2011 and 2014 unemployment, calculated as a share in the active population, remained at 0.5 per cent. In 2015, it grew to one per cent and is expected to increase by another 0.4 percentage points in 2017. It is expected to start falling in 2018.

In July 2016, the National Bank carried out a denomination process (BYR 10,000 => BYN 1). In Q3 2016, the new rouble appreciated slightly but FocusEconomics expects the currency to depreciate in the coming months. In 2017, $1 will cost between BYN 2.09 and 2.13 and €1 — between BYN 2.28 and 2.38.

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Romanian Cyber Security Firm Valued at 600 million US dollars in Private Equity Swoop

cyber security

Do Your Homework First and Starting Business in Poland is Easier

China and Central Europe: Don’t Believe the Hype

China

Ukraine to Make New Privatisation Push

Go East

The Belarusian Economy: The Challenges of Stalled Reforms

Slovenia is CEE’s leader in innovation

PE and VC Investment In CEE Is At an Eight-Year High

venture capital

Merkel: Albania is taking big steps forward

Growth Continues for State-Owned Azerbaijan Airlines

Azerbaijan Baku - September 16 2015: View of the Heydar Aliyev International Airport sign in Baku Azerbaijan. The airport is the home of Azerbaijan Airlines the national flag carrier.

Belarusian Tech Companies Lead a Global Technological Advance in Outsourcing and Product Development

ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih Gets EBRD Boost

Landscape with two mine head frames . Ukraine, Kryvyi Rih, Iron-ore mine Gvardeiskaya. An autumn sunny day with blue sky. Complex for Mining

Chinese Electric Car Maker Seeks Emerging Europe Base

zhi dou d2

EY: Belarus’ IT Scene Is Thriving

High tech park minsk

Ask for Georgian Campaign Set to Expand Abroad

Traditional Georgian carpet. Carpets with typical geometrical patterns are among the most famous products of Georgia.

Investing in Ukrainian Food and Agriculture

Baltics Seek Lockstep With High Tech States

Euro money: Macro view of euro coin and bill. Suitable for financial, monetary, euro or European Union concepts and ideas

Lviv Is the Pearl and the Soul of Ukraine

Michael: The Last King of Romania

Jadranka Joksimović: Serbia Takes Its Candidacy of the EU Seriously

bigstock-Joint-Press-Conference-Of-Serb-155400338.jpg

All for One, and One for All

GE

Japanese PM Announces Western Balkans EU Initiative

TOKYO JAPAN - Apr 06 2016: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during his meeting with President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in Tokyo

Investment in Croatia’s Regions Key to Further Development

CAKOVEC, CROATIA - JULY 02: Parish Church of Saint Nicholas in Cakovec, Croatia, on July 02, 2016.

Moldovan Government Hails Business-Friendly Legal Reforms; NGOs Remain Cool

Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Eastern Europe, 29th June 2017: view to the Parliament Building in Chisinau, Moldova

Retail Rents Rise Across Emerging Europe

Na Prikope Prague

Moldova Launches New e-Procurement System In Search For Positive Change

Photo team work process, holding contract hand, signs documents. Account managers young crew works with startup project.New idea presentation, analyze marketing reports.Blurred, film effect, horizontal.

Emerging Europe’s Economies Are Booming

Emerging Europe to Record Positive Growth Across the Board in 2018

coins growth

UK Economic Growth Slows as Brexit Uncertainty Bites

flags of UK and EU combined over icons of London - Brexit concept

The Next Four Months Crucial For the Belarus-EU Relations

Fitch And the World Bank: Economic Growth To Remain Solid Within CEE In 2016

Estonia — Easy Doing Business Destination seminar in the UK

Global Players Dash for Tempting CEE

dollar pound euro coin on euro background.

Prospering Czechia Still Needs a Bigger Workforce

prague emerging europe

Smart, reliable and promising

Emerging Europe Makes Great Strides in Improving Business Regulation for Entrepreneurs

Skopje Macedonia

Georgian Wine Posts Record Results

Glass of wine at tasting area of annual city festival Tbilisoba with crowd of people around. Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia country

GE Inaugurates Its New Bucharest Software Centre

Asian Outsource Developer Team Sitting At Desk Working Laptop Computer Mobile Application Software Real Office

Ukraine Is Offering Europe Unique Combat and Technological Experience

Ukraine to Restart Privatisation to Realise Profits

Pricatisation electricity ukraine

Belarus Steps Up Liberalisation of Business

belarus

SEE Link — Sharing SEE Europe’s Hopes for a Brighter Investment Future

What Went Wrong in Ukraine – And When?

IMF Increases Growth Forecast With Emerging Europe Prominent

Dambovita river and center of Bucharest at sunset time Romania.

Will the New Five-day Visa-free Regime Encourage More Visitors to Belarus?

Is the CEE Region About to Steal the Outsourcing Crown From India?

Amazing view on the Taj Mahal in sunset light with reflection in water. The Taj Mahal is an ivory-white marble mausoleum on the south bank of the Yamuna river. Agra Uttar Pradesh India.

Ex-Banker to Become Poland’s Next Prime Minister

Georgia’s Sweetest Export Targets EU & Japan Expansion

Kiwi fruits growing on the branch on autumn

Slovenia is the CEE region’s leader in VAT collection

World Bank: Western Balkans Need to Speed Up Growth For Faster Convergence

world bank

Efficient Innovation: Entrepreneurship in Bulgaria

Beautiful photos of modern buildings under blue sky. Europe, Bulgaria, Sofia.

How Did We Get Here?

Amazing Panorama to City of Plovdiv from nebet tepe hill, Bulgaria

Poland Set for New Expressways, But Problems on the Roads Remain

poland roads

Emerging Europe Key to China’s Belt & Road Plans

freight, ship, trade

Bulgaria’s cooperation with Israel could boost the economy

Emerging Europe Live: Life in Belarus As Seen by Foreigners

Fish in the Bath and Other Christmas Traditions

Christmas Market On The Dome Square With Riga Dome Cathedral In Riga, Latvia. Christmas Tree And Trading Houses With Sale Of Christmas Gifts, Sweets And Mulled Wine. Famous Landmark.

Kraków: Officially Emerging Europe’s Most Elegant City

Krakow. Image of Krakow Market square, Poland during sunrise.

Škoda too Strong for VW Group

MLADA BOLESLAV CZECH REPUBLIC - MAY 30: Skoda Octavia on conveyor line during Doors Open Day at Skoda Auto a.s. factory. Skoda auto celebrated 120 years since its founding on May 30 2015 in Mlada Boleslav.

The Proof of a Country’s Readiness to Attract Foreign Investors Lies in the Development of the Insurance Market

ICT Growth Continues to Boost Bosnian Economy

ict, it

Encouraging SME’s Development Will Help Build Belarusian Economy

Poland’s New PM Defends Attacks on Justice System

warsaw supreme court

China Eyes Moldovan Trade Agreement

CRICOVA MOLDOVA July 24 2017 :Underground wine cellar with collection of bottles in niches. Winery with 120 km of underground passages for wine storage

Growth Increase Offers Glimmer of Hope for Moldova

chisinau

Georgian PM Reshapes and Reshuffles Cabinet

Giorgi Kvirikashvili

Mobilising Private Sector Investment in Belarus, Moldova & Ukraine

IFC

Doing Business Across Eurasia Could Be Easier

Eurasia emerging europe schneider group

Budapest’s Property Boom Goes Nationwide

building

Nadiya Savchenko: I Dream of a Great Ukraine

Panorama of the top part of the Andrew's Descent from Castle Hill in springtime in Kiev Ukraine.

Poland Stays Cool on Euro Adoption

Euro cash and Zloty on one photo.

IFC Invests 30 Million Euros in Ukrainian Packaging Firm

IMMER Ukrplastic

Falling Student Numbers and Declining R&D Result From Lack of Funds

Azerbaijan Showcases ICT Potential

BAKU AZERBAIJAN - SEPTEMBER 25: People goes by the seafront of Baku on September 25 2016. Baku is a capital and largest city of Azerbaijan.

Why Emerging Europe is the New Darling of Outsourcing

outsourcing Developing programming and coding technologies. Website design. Cyber space concept.

Slovenia: Emerging Europe’s Hidden Giant

ljubljana slovenia

Latvian Deputy Prime Minister Highlights Riga’s Potential

riga

Kosovo: A Population of Talented Young Entrepreneurs Waits at Europe’s Door

Minsk International Airport Widens its International Reach

Belavia

Belarus Is Where the New Silk Road Heads For Europe

Business Mentors Helping to Solve Business Development Problems First

Portrait of confident business people interacting in the office

Office Space Vacancy is Currently Low but Building Standards Cause Concern

Minsk Belarus - March 23 2017 modern architecture business center Pokrovsky on Pobediteley Avenue editorial

Investors Eye Opportunities in Emerging European Infrastructure

infrastructure

Belarus is Bringing Opportunities for European Companies

Great Stone

Rolling Sales Procedures Together so Everyone Succeeds

Coworkers

OECD: Belarus Has to Find Its Own Belarusian Model to Emerge

The Slovak Matchmaking Fair open for registration

Belarus: Changing Old Ideas And Mixing With the New in Belarus’ Export Market

Industrial Production Prices in New Increase

electricity

Belarus Serves up Some Recipes for Success

Business in Belarus Recipe Book

Automotive and Transport Companies Dominate the CEE Region

Car bodies on the production line inside automobile factory

Bulgaria’s Bitcoin Mystery

bitcoin bulgaria

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