FocusEconomics: Belarusian Economy to Grow in Q4 2016 and Onwards

emerging europe belarus outlook ebrd

Read the Outlook on Belarus special report


Long term trends (2018-2020)

Population 9.2 million
GDP $66.0 billion
GDP per capita $7,150
GDP growth 2.4%
Fiscal balance 0.2% of GDP
Public debt 51.7% of GDP
Inflation 8.7%
Current account -5.0% of GDP
External debt 69.9% of GDP

Source: FocusEconomics

After several quarters of recession the Belarusian economy is expected to grow by 0.2 per cent in Q4 2016.  In addition, the average annual GDP growth between 2017 and 2020 will rise to 2.4 per cent, says the outlook from FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Belarus — May 2016, published in May this year. That growth will help GDP per capita to slightly exceed the 2014 figure of $8,029, by 2020.

“The economy’s outlook is grim. Weak domestic and external dynamics, coupled with debt repayments in foreign currencies, will constrain growth prospects. Furthermore, a slow economic recovery, in Russia, will keep remittances’ inflows and export growth depressed. We should see GDP fall by 1.2 per cent in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, the panel projects that the economy will rebound to a 1.5 per cent expansion,” says Jean-Philippe Pourcelot, an economist at Focus Economics.

Reduced remittances’ inflows, as well as the spillover effect from Russia’s economic downturn, caused the Belarusian economy to contract sharply in 2015. Although in all likelihood it bottomed out in 2015, the latest economic indicators from Q1 2016 confirm that economic activity remains weak. After decreasing by 6.6 per cent in 2015, this year’s industrial production will fall by 1.5 per cent. A positive figure of 1.3 is expected for 2017. Private consumption is expected to fall by 1.3 per cent in 2016 and grow by 0.7 per cent in 2017.

Jean-Philippe Pourcelot, an economist at Focus Economics
Jean-Philippe Pourcelot, an economist at Focus Economics

“In March, retail sales contracted for the third consecutive month and industrial production decreased for the fifteenth month running. After securing a much-needed $2 billion loan from the Eurasian Fund for Stabilisation earlier this year, the government announced an ambitious pension reform, which includes extending the retirement age by three years. This reform aims to shore-up not only public finances, but also to make the country eligible for a $3 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This will allow the country to honour its debt commitments of $3.3 billion that are due this year,” Mr Pourcelot says.

Between 2011 and 2014 unemployment, calculated as a share in the active population, remained at 0.5 per cent. In 2015 it grew to 0.9 per cent and is expected to increase by another 0.6 percentage points.

In March inflation was stable, remaining at the previous month’s figure of 12.8 per cent.  A weak Belarusian Rouble is putting upward pressure on prices. Our panel of analysts expects inflation to average out at 13.4 per cent in 2016 and predicts it will ease to 11.5 per cent in 2017.

“In March, consumer prices rose 0.8 per cent over the previous month, which came in well below February’s 2.9 per cent rise and which marked the slowest increase in four months. According to the National Statistical Committee, this figure came on the back of a softer expansion, in all three components of the index,” says Mr Pourcelot.

Annual average inflation edged down to 12.5 per cent (February: 12.8 per cent). The core consumer price index—which strips out prices for more volatile goods, such as seasonal products and government regulated goods—eased to 1.0 per cent in March over the previous month. Core inflation jumped to 4.0 per cent from February’s 3.1 per cent.

FocusEconomics expects the Belarusian Rouble to depreciate slightly in the following quarters. At the end of Q3 2017, $1 will cost BYR 21,700 and €1 — BYR 24,322. After that, the rouble is expected to appreciate.


From Denmark to Belarus — A Personal Experience of Business

Central And Eastern Europe At the World Property Market

Belarus: On the Way to a Market Economy?

Belarus: The Importance Of Diversification

World Bank’s Doing Business Report 2016 Resume For Emerging Europe

The Next Four Months Crucial For the Belarus-EU Relations

Belarus Steps Up Liberalisation of Business


Belarus Is One of the Top Outsourcing Destinations of 2016

Is the CEE Region About to Steal the Outsourcing Crown From India?

Amazing view on the Taj Mahal in sunset light with reflection in water. The Taj Mahal is an ivory-white marble mausoleum on the south bank of the Yamuna river. Agra Uttar Pradesh India.

Belarusian Journalists Still Face Huge Problems

While the EU Makes Plans for CEE China Makes Investments

Nuclear Security Summit In Washington, 2016

Encouraging SME’s Development Will Help Build Belarusian Economy

Belarus is the most creative EEU country

Rolling Sales Procedures Together so Everyone Succeeds


The EU’s Benign Neglect Of Eastern Europe

Germany Is Not Letting Belarus’ Small Downturns Put it off Looking for Investment Opportunities

Belarus Is Making the First Steps onto the International Finance Floor

Emerging Europe Live: Life in Belarus As Seen by Foreigners

Germany and Belarus: Thinking Globally Acting Locally

UK Shores: the New Frontier, a View on a Series of Fortunate Events

A New Modern Mall Hopes to Draw Belarusians Back to the Home Market

RRY Capital

Belarus Is Where the New Silk Road Heads For Europe

The Proof of a Country’s Readiness to Attract Foreign Investors Lies in the Development of the Insurance Market

Georgia Leads Emerging Europe in Ease of Doing Business Report

Under Promise, Over Deliver: Prospects for the EU’s Eastern Partnership in 2018

Eastern partnership

The Country Shows Promise but Needs Some Reforms

EBRD Emerging Europe Outlook on Belarus 2016

The Belarusian Economy: The Challenges of Stalled Reforms

High-Tech Park in Minsk is growing rapidly

Not All Quiet on the Eastern Front

The Deep Roots of Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union

Why Was Zapad-2017 So Important?

russian tank belarus zapad

The Eurasian Economic Union Fails to Bring Belarus Closer to Big Brother

Belarus’s Election Tests the EU’s Global Strategy

Lukashenka seeks to avoid commitment to Russia’s geostrategic goals

Brexit Makes Waves Across the European Union and Beyond

Belarusian Tech Companies Lead a Global Technological Advance in Outsourcing and Product Development

Czechs Hold Emerging Europe’s Most Powerful Passport

Foreigners choose Minsk and Gomel as Belarus’ most attractive FDI destinations

Belarus is Bringing Opportunities for European Companies

Great Stone

Belarus and Singapore Share the Same Factors for Economic Success

Belarus Refinery Boss Upbeat Despite Challenges

oil refinery

Belarus’ Economy Is Slowly Recovering From Past Declines

Belarus Serves up Some Recipes for Success

Business in Belarus Recipe Book

Business Opportunities in Belarus Encourage Outside Interest

Belarus Has To Make an Extra Effort To Change Investors’ Perceptions

Winds of Change for Belarus’ Reinsurance Industry?

Young Well-Paid IT Specialists Are Making Belarus Known Internationally

Foreign Investors: Belarus Offers Opportunities But Further Improvements Are Needed

Will the New Five-day Visa-free Regime Encourage More Visitors to Belarus?

Belarus 2020: Turning the Vicious Circle Into an Upward Spiral

Office Space Vacancy is Currently Low but Building Standards Cause Concern

Minsk Belarus - March 23 2017 modern architecture business center Pokrovsky on Pobediteley Avenue editorial

HTP: Belarus’ Engineers Are Leading a Cool Revolution

Falling Student Numbers and Declining R&D Result From Lack of Funds

The Reality Is More Interesting Than the Misconceptions

Despite Public Anxieties, Migration is Playing a Key Role in ECA Growth

Bratislava city aerial panoramic view. Bratislava is the capital of Slovakia.

Belarusian Economic Recovery May Downgrade Intended Reforms for Competitiveness

Will European Business and Institutions Bolster the New Trends That Have Appeared in Belarus?

Belarus: Navigating the geopolitical storm

Are Labour Shortages Driving Economic Growth?

Belarus: MOST Builds a Bridge to the Future

The essence of the Customs Union is protectionism

Bringing Belarus’ Cultural Past to Life for Belarusians and the World

The UK and Belarus: A Partnership to Introduce the Real Belarus to Europe

New investors interested in Belarus’ Great Stone Industrial Park

Smart, reliable and promising

Belarus US Business Relations Thrive as Conditions Improve

One Belt One Road: a Big Task for Europe

Belarus Is Ready to Begin With Venture Capital Investments

The Belarusian Financial Sector: An Industry in the Process of Restructuring

Emerging Europe Live: CEE — The Outsourcing Destination

Veni, Vidi, Vici, Or My Personal Experience of Doing Business in Belarus

Slowly, Tech Brand Belarus Emerges

belarus tech

Using Words to Paint a Picture – Belarus’ Nobel Prize Winning Novelist

The Shopping Experience Is Set To Go Global in Belarus from 2017 Onwards

Feel the Vibe of the City of Minsk

Trinity suburb in Minsk (Nemiga) Belarus on 20 May 2017

The Belarusian Banking Sector Moving Towards Modernisation Despite Some Challenges

Breaking trade barriers with CIS has never been easier

Why Is Belarus Tech Booming?

Business Mentors Helping to Solve Business Development Problems First

Portrait of confident business people interacting in the office

Belarus Introduces New Business-Friendly Auditing Procedures

MINSK, BELARUS - AUGUST 15, 2016: Aerial view of the southwestern part of the Minsk with Palace of Sport and old and new other buildings. Minsk is the capital and largest city of Belarus.

Long-time Neighbours Need to Share Awareness, Plus Trade & Investment

IMF Believes State-Owned Enterprises Must Be Reformed

Image of the banknotes of new Belarusian banknotes five rubles put into circulation July 1 2016

Emerging Europe Makes Some Progress on Closing Gender Gap

world economic forum gender gap report

Innovation Brings Great Opportunities to the Belarusian Economy

The EU Is Encouraging Belarus to Join the World Trade Organisation

‘No’ To a Monetary Union With Russia

Brexit Is a Great Opportunity to Attract Foreign Investors to Belarus

The Belarusian real estate market is on the up

EBRD Transition Report Highlights Financial Sector Resilience


21st century Manufacturing Arrives at Great Stone

Great stone

The Great Stone Industrial Park — Making Doing Business Easy in Minsk

Mobilising Private Sector Investment in Belarus, Moldova & Ukraine


Outsourcing in Germany: Stop Talking at and Start Talking to

Cautious Upturn in Emerging Europe Haunted by the Spectre of Uncertainty

Donald Trump

A Strategic Asset for Regional Growth and Development in the EU

Pier bridge crane and cargo handling cargo trains transported away.

Invest in Belarus: looking beyond politics to the future

Minsk International Airport Widens its International Reach


Italy and Belarus: A Relationship Based on Complementarities and History

Belarus-Turkey Investment Forum to increase investment and trade between the two countries

Emerging Europe to Record Positive Growth Across the Board in 2018

coins growth

PandaDoc — Rolling Sales Procedures Together So Everyone Succeeds

Serbia, Belarus and Ukraine Ranked Lowly by Wharton Business School

Kyiv Ukraine - April 172017: The postal square in Kiev on Podol the Dnipro river. view of the square from the river panorama

More EU Help for Belarus SMEs

GRODNO BELARUS - DECEMBER 13 2013: Seamstress in textile factory sewing with a industrial sewing machine .

Belarus Has Set an Example for Others to Follow

“e-Belarus”: Embracing the Internet and its Possibilities

Belarus: Changing Old Ideas And Mixing With the New in Belarus’ Export Market

The EU’s Benign Neglect of Eastern Europe

EY: Belarus’ IT Scene Is Thriving

High tech park minsk

OECD: Belarus Has to Find Its Own Belarusian Model to Emerge

Belarusian Economy on a Diet to Change its Financial Outlook

Emerging Europe and the EBRD host the Outlook on Belarus conference in London

Putin Urges Belarus to End Oil Transit Through Lithuania

Athens Greece - May 27 2016: Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers

Belarus and the EBRD:
Working to Expand the Country’s Strengths and Success

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *