News & Analysis

Raiffeisen expects Ukraine to receive six to eight billion US dollars in new IMF package

Analysts at Raiffeisen predict that Ukraine’s new three-year agreement with the International Monetary Fund will see the country receive a loan of six to eight billion US dollars by the end of 2019, Open4Business Ukraine has reported.

According to a recent study prepared by the bank, 40 per cent of Ukraine’s gross external debt is due in the next two years (16.8 billion US dollars in 2020 and 18.5 billion in 2021), meaning that the country’s new government will have to agree on a new cooperation programme with the fund as soon as possible. “Even with the full rollover of intercompany loans and the refinancing of 50 per cent of corporate credits, Ukraine will have to pay 12.5 billion US dollars in 2020 and 15 billion US dollars in 2021,” the document says.

In July, the updated macroeconomic forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) assumed that the new IMF programme was likely to start in the fourth quarter, with Ukraine to receive two billion US dollars this year. “We also expect two billion in each of the next years as part of the new structural financing program,” Dmytro Sologub from the NBU said, adding that the new program could range from five to ten billion USD for a period of 36 to 48 months.