Are all Russian speakers in the Baltics Russia’s friends?

It is often speculated that the Russian-speaking population in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania might become a fifth column that undermines the sovereignty of the Baltic states and pushes them closer to Russia. Is there a reason for that? Should we fully trust the Baltic states?

Well, first of all, the Russian speakers living in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania is not a homogeneous group of people. After the end of World War Two the Soviet authorities brought many blue-collar workers to Estonia and today the Russian minority equates to a quarter of the population. In Latvia, Russian speakers, many of which were well educated, had a significant influence on politics and business already before the war and today they make approximately one-third of the population. In Lithuania, the Russian speaking minority is only around 8 per cent of the general population.

Similarly, not all Russian speakers are ethnic Russians. In the three countries there are other minorities such as Ukrainians, Belarusians, Poles or other people of mixed ethnic origin of which many speak primarily Russian at home.

In Estonia, research has shown that Russian speakers can be divided into five different groups depending on their level of integration. More than one-third are quite well integrated and consider themselves part of the Estonian society whereas the rest are less attached to Estonia and are to various degrees more oriented toward other countries, among them Russia. This larger group of Russian speakers, many of whom are blue-collar workers, retirees and unemployed, may be receptive to Kremlin disinformation. But their loyalty to Estonia is not necessarily dependent on Estonian language proficiency.

It is therefore important to distinguish between these different groups of Russian speakers. A significant number of them are as loyal to their Government as people who consider themselves ethnic Estonians, Latvians or Lithuanians. They certainly do not deserve to be approached with more suspicion than other groups of the population. They should also have the right to identify themselves as ethnic Russians without automatically being associated with the current regime in Moscow just as it was incorrect to say that all Germans were Nazis in the 1930s. Nobody is and should not be forced to speak Estonian or Latvian at home.

However, large groups of Russian speakers living primarily in Estonia and Latvia do not see themselves part of their current homeland but long back to the old Soviet days. Many of them do not follow Estonian or Latvian media and of those who do, many distrust it and prefer the state-controlled Russian media. Potentially, the Kremlin could be successful in exploiting these people and use real or imaginary social problems as a pretext to use military force against the Baltic states.

The governments of Estonia and Latvia are not expected to counter the Kremlin propaganda with equal efforts. Moscow’s financial resources obviously exceed the possibilities of the Baltic states. Unlike Russia, the small nations should not adhere to lies. But as a number of events undertaken by Estonian NGO’s have shown, Russian speakers often feel left on their own.

In Estonia, the government often addresses the population in Estonian only. Formally and legally, this might be in perfect accordance with the language law but it is not necessarily enough to win hearts and minds that otherwise would be lost to president Putin. Very often these Russian speakers would be grateful for more attention from their respective governments. When the Commander of the Estonian Defence Forces, Lieutenant General Riho Terras, held a speech in Narva in honour of the 97th anniversary of the Republic of Estonia on 24 February, 2015, he chose to quote the Russian poet Igor Severyanin in Russian. His address proved to be highly appreciated by the Russian audience and serves as a good example for other senior leaders in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.


The views expressed in this opinion editorial are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Emerging Europe’s editorial policy.

About the author

Martin Hurt

Martin Hurt

Martin Hurt is Deputy Director and Member of the Executive Board at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Estonia. He previously previously worked on various posts at the Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Estonia, the General Staff of the Estonian Defence Forces and the Headquarters of the Swedish Armed Forces. Martin is a graduate of the Economics Department of Stockholm University. He has studied Estonian Philology and History at the University of Tartu.
Twitter: @martinjhurt


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  • Just remember this. These “Russians”, not speakers were foisted upon the Baltic States. No one asked them to come in the first place!!

  • Many Russians voted for Estonian re-independence from Russia. Many Russians make up the solid middleclass. Estonians do not necessarily want their children to become locksmiths or shoe repairmen etc. Estonians want their children to become doctors and lawyers and such. We do need to consider them more effectively but not with our own version of propaganda. We in Estonia should set up an English speaking news service so that younger Russians can follow local news if for no other reason than to improve their English skills. If we did have an English speaking news channel in Estonia, then other member states in the European Union could also follow our local news. This is one way to get our message out. The older Russian speakers are not ever going to watch or listen to our version of Estonian news in Russian, but English, they even may. English is the European language and therefore makes sense to use more of it when we want our position appreciated and understood.

  • US policy of surrounding Russia with NATO members as during the cold war era is condemnable.Baltic states should be wary of US intentions.Afer all US can do nothing in case of a conflict.Baltic countries should treat their Russian minorities as their own citizens and make all efforts to win them over and seek accomodation with Russia.