The Western Balkans are in a unique position because the region isn’t already shackled to gas infrastructure.
The countries of the Western Balkans have enough prospective utility-scale solar and wind projects to generate four times more electricity than from gas-fired plants, saving billions of euros and avoiding significant carbon emissions in the process, according to a major new report.
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia collectively hold a combined 23 GW of prospective utility-scale solar and wind capacity—70 per cent more than a year ago and comparable to the prospective capacity in Germany.
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The data, which comes from a new report from Global Energy Monitor, CEE Bankwatch Network and REScoop.eu, shows that while Serbia currently boasts the largest share of operating (444 MW, or 29 per cent) and prospective (10.9 GW, or 47 per cent) utility-scale solar and wind capacity in the region, it risks falling behind as Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia have outpaced it in adding new capacity over the past few years.
Yet the region’s operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity accounts for just seven per cent of the regional electricity mix (1.5 GW). At the same time, only six per cent (1.3 GW) of prospective capacity is under construction and very likely to become operational.
In order to unlock their full wind and solar potential, governments need to address barriers associated with planning and permitting, and develop supportive legal frameworks and complementary infrastructure to build up a clean and flexible grid, says the report.
Renewables zoning should be done with rigorous environmental safeguards, to reduce trade-offs with nature and biodiversity. Local communities should also be actively involved in, and benefit from the projects.
For their part, the EU and US need to embrace solar and wind instead of gas as an energy security measure to help the Western Balkans reach its full clean energy potential.
Unique position
“The Western Balkans are in a unique position because the region isn’t already shackled to gas infrastructure,” says Zhanaiym Kozybay, co-author of the report and researcher for Global Energy Monitor.
“Wind and solar are low hanging fruit, and choosing renewables is a greener move that makes economic sense. But more political will is needed domestically, and the EU and US should champion the region’s clean energy potential rather than backing expensive, polluting gas.”
A coal-to-clean transition that bypasses gas could avert an estimated 103 million tonnes in lifetime CO2 emissions, according to GEM analysis, equal to 87 per cent of the region’s CO2 emissions in 2022.
GEM’s analysis shows it could further save the Western Balkans more than nine billion euros in energy costs and stranded assets.
The renewable transition would also keep the Western Balkans’s carbon neutral goals within reach.
As aspiring European Union members, the Western Balkan states have pledged to align their energy markets with the EU and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 at the latest.
Ending reliance on hydropower
Under the Energy Community Treaty, the Western Balkans adopted renewable energy consumption targets ranging from 23 per cent to 40 per cent by 2020. In order to achieve these goals, the region relied heavily on hydropower expansion and regarded solar and wind as too expensive and unpredictable.
Before 2020, the Western Balkan countries chose to limit solar and wind investments and instead incentivise hydropower.
This choice, together with a fleet of large hydropower plants from the previous century, has led to today’s renewable energy mix of 89 per cent hydropower and 11 per cent wind and solar, according to a Bankwatch Network analysis.
“After years of over-reliance on climate-vulnerable hydropower, it’s gratifying to see solar and wind finally accelerating in the Western Balkans,” says Pippa Gallop, Southeast Europe energy policy officer at Bankwatch, a network of grassroots environmental groups in Central and Eastern Europe.
“The challenge now is to speed up improvements in spatial planning, environmental assessments and public participation, to prevent biodiversity damage and build public support.”
Investment needed
A separate report from the World Bank meanwhile suggested this week that the six economies of the Western Balkans need to collectively invest at least 37 billion US dollars over the next decade to effectively protect people and property from the damaging and escalating impacts of climate change.
The World Bank Group’s Western Balkans regional Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) says that inaction is not an option for the region, which is already severely impacted by climate change.
For instance, floods have directly affected two million people in the past decade, with the impacts set to worsen with more extreme rainfall. Wildfires are a growing threat, with over 1,500 recorded in 2021, a 21 per cent increase over the past decade. Droughts are negatively affecting agricultural production, while heatwaves are contributing to air pollution, causing thousands of premature deaths annually in the Western Balkans.
“Climate change poses a clear threat to economic development in the Western Balkans,” says Xiaoqing Yu, World Bank Country Director for the Western Balkans. “The costs of investing in adaptation are significant. But the good news is that the benefits are even higher. By preparing for climate hazards, we can save lives, safeguard local communities, and stimulate economic growth.”
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