Ukraine’s central bank improves GDP forecast

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved its 2019 growth forecast to three per cent, Ukrainian news agency UNIAN has reported.

According to the NBU’s latest report, the growth forecast for 2020 was also raised, from 2.9 per cent to 3.2 per cent.

NBU officials said that the acceleration of growth in the Ukrainian economy was a result of more stable domestic demand, the expansion of the agricultural sector and better trade conditions.

At the same time, the low level of global economic activities and potential decreases in Ukrainian gas transit to Europe from 2020 remain “constraining factors” for the country’s economic growth, the NBU warns.

The central bank’s outlook on inflation was left unchanged at 6.3 per cent for 2019, and five per cent for both 2020 and 2021.

The Ukrainian government’s latest estimate calculates with a real GDP growth of three per cent and a 7.4 per cent inflation rate for 2019. For the latter, the latest IMF and the World Bank projections expect 7.3 per cent.