Investors in Poland Unfazed By Article 7

.

Investors don’t appear to have yet reacted to Brussels triggering Article 7 against Poland. Bond yields have increased slightly. WIG 20, the Warsaw Stock Exchange’s main index went up on 20 and 21 December, after the European Commission’s announcement, by 0.3 per cent and returned to its 19 December level on 22 December. The złoty exchange rate hasn’t been affected either. On the contrary, the Polish currency, together with the Czech Koruna, are currently the strongest currencies worldwide.

“It does not seem that the deterioration of relations with the EU and increased internal political polarisation have affected investments, but we believe that there is such a risk,” said the American rating agency Fitch in a statement.

“The potentially negative consequences of the political insecurity triggered by the conflict with the EU are now softened by Poland’s strong [macroeconomic] fundamentals, including strong domestic demand, EU funds and the improving situation on the labour market,” Dietmar Hornung, Moody’s managing director, told Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.

Although economists say Poland passed its limits in Q3 2017, when the economy grew by 4.9 per cent year-on-year, and is not expected to grow that fast in the following quarters, businesses are red-hot, exports are booming, unemployment is going down and the increase in wages is stimulating consumption. In November 2017, retail sales went up by 10.2 per cent year-on-year.  

Both Fitch and Moody’s believe the EU procedure against Poland should not have a short-term impact on public finances or on economic growth, but it ‘illogically bodes’ for the beginning of discussions with the EU on the next budget which is set to start in 2020.  

“A lower inflow of EU funds may hit economic growth, and if the government decided to compensate for the loss of some funds through debt, it would weaken public finances,” says Fitch.

Fitch also believes that in the face of the ‘generally’ pro-EU sentiment among Polish society, an increase in EU tensions may turn out politically costly in the next elections (local elections will take place in 2018 and parliamentary in 2019).

Currently, 88 per cent of Poles are in favour of their country’s EU membership.

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MARSEILLE FRANCE - JUNE 21 2016: People watch football match at Tribunes of Stade Velodrome during UEFA EURO 2016 game Ukraine v Poland

All for One, and One for All

GE

Changes Are Making Ukrainian Banking More Aligned with International Standards

Poland Fails to Spend Billions of Euros in EU Funds

euro banknotes

Emerging Europe’s Economies Are Booming

China-Georgia FTA Takes Effect

TBILISI GEORGIA - SEPTEMBER 28: Top view of Tbilisi downtown Georgia on September 28 2016. Tbilisi is a capital and largest city of Georgia.

Ametek opened a new factory in Subotica

Romanian Car Maker Dacia Sees Sales Boom

Sables d Olonne France - May 07 2017 : Dacia Tour 2017 is a commercial operation organized by the car builder in order to present its cars throughout France - Close-up on cars

Baltics Seek Lockstep With High Tech States

Euro money: Macro view of euro coin and bill. Suitable for financial, monetary, euro or European Union concepts and ideas

IFC Invests 30 Million Euros in Ukrainian Packaging Firm

IMMER Ukrplastic

New investors interested in Belarus’ Great Stone Industrial Park

Assaults on the Judiciary: How CEE Governments Are Trying to Restrict Judicial Independence, and Why It’s Not Working… For Now

poland romania justice system

Towards a resilient Europe, strategies for the future

Bloomberg Croatia Business Day 2015

The Peculiar Growth of Poland

KRAKOW POLAND - JUNE 2017: logo of Galeria Krakowska shopping center.

The Problem With Central European City-States

Budapest Hungary - Panoramic skyline view of the famous Buda Castle Royal Palace with the Buda Hills and Matthias Church at background at sunset

Globalisation Needs to Work, Not Only for the Few but for the Most and in Demonstrable Ways

Global Spread

Budapest and Warsaw: Marriage of Convenience or Union of Values?

Prospering Czechia Still Needs a Bigger Workforce

prague emerging europe

Georgia’s Great Potential

The highland agriculture lands in Gudauri with the herd of sheep grazing here Georgia.

World Bank: Brexit Hides Greater Challenges to the European Union and the CEE Region

The Czech government attracts FDI and creates jobs

PE and VC Investment In CEE Is At an Eight-Year High

venture capital

Ukraine’s Anti-Corruption Boss Survives, For Now

Artem Sytnyk

EBRD Transition Report Highlights Financial Sector Resilience

Baku

Michael: The Last King of Romania

Emerging Europe to Record Positive Growth Across the Board in 2018

coins growth

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